With the MLB trade deadline six days away, it's not clear what the Cincinnati Reds will do from a pure buy-or-sell standpoint.
But Reds President of Baseball Operations Dick Williams made clear what they won't do:
- They won't trade prospects for rental players just for this season simply to go for it.
- They won't go into fire-sale mode and move players to simply cut payroll for this year.
"All along, what I've said is we want to continue to make the team better," Williams said. "We've got to be open to what's out there. Our ideal add – if we make any– would be ones that would help this team next year and beyond.
"It's nice if they have some value for us this year."
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So the Reds are basically looking for controllable players, i.e, players under contract or players that are at least a year or two from free agency.
The problem is there are a ton of teams in contention. Six American League teams are within six games of the wild card; 11 National League teams are with eight games of the wild card. That included the Reds, who went into Thursday's off day eight games out of the NL Central lead and the wild card.
"Over the last four weeks leading to the deadline, a lot of teams have to adapt to the changing circ*mstances," Williams said. "We've got to keep an eye on them.
"But what's been nice is our approach has been consistent in terms of finding deals for players who would help us beyond this year. We haven't had a focus on adding short-term rentals.
"That doesn't mean we're going to find those additions, but that's something we're open to. We have the resources, we have some money, and wehave some prospects if we can find players that make sense."
That is not to say the Reds won't trade players on the current roster.
"We're open to trading players from our team only in the vein of making our organization better, for now and for the future. We don't need to sell off, trade off. We're not in that mindset of trading players to save payroll for next year. None of those are on the table.
"If we make a trade, it would be a good baseball trade for us that would address a need."
It will not be surprising if the Reds do not make a significant trade or any trade at all. That's because a lot of teams are in the same situation as they are. They're on the fringe of contention, so they're looking for controllable assets as well.
The Reds do have a significant number of free agents-to-be: Yasiel Puig, Scooter Gennett, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, José Iglesias, Jared Hughes (club option) and David Hernandez.
Because of injuries, ineffectiveness or need of contenders, none of them other than Puig and Roark likely have much trade value. Puig is hitting .348/.404/.687 with 11 home runs and 26 RBI over his past 36 games. Roark is 6-6 with a 3.95 ERA and is 22nd in the NL in pitchers' WAR.
Conventional wisdom says to trade free agents if you're not going to sign them. But in the case of Puig and Roark, the Reds could make a qualifying offer (probably around $18 million). If the player refuses, the Reds will get a compensation pick in the MLB Draft. Jesse Winker was a compensation pick.
If Puig or Roark accept, the Reds get them for a year. That will likely be close to Puig's market value; probably a bit high in Roark's case.
Keeping Puig and Roark around would also likely mean the Reds finish stronger than they would without them. There's value in that with a young team in which most of the players have never experienced a winning season.
Another player the Reds would likely be willing to move is closer Raisel Iglesias. He's under team control for two more years. That enhances his value. But he's pitched so poorly that he may be hard to trade.
So, again, it's hard to say what the Reds will do, but don't expect a fire sale or a rash of rental players.
